It’s hard not to notice some echoes of the classic S-shape in the graph of craft beer market share. What would a diffusion model project for the next five to 10 years?

Good times returned to the U.S. beer industry in 2012, and great times continued for the vast majority of Americas 2,347 craft breweries.

The big brewers in 2011 seem to have woken up and at least have recognized the challenges posed by craft beer, spirits, wine, and non-alcoholic energy drinks.

Almost every regional craft brewery seems to have either undergone a major expansion or has drawn up blueprints for a build-out. Also, 11 more breweries joined the category.

In 2011, the headlines were about new local breweries, ongoing growth, and the hundreds of breweries in planning. The sheer number has become a conversation itself.

Two hundred and fifty breweries opened in the United States in 2011, providing one of many bright spots in a year in which craft brewer volumes grew 13%.

Given the continuing economic doldrums and persistently high unemployment since 2009, it might be easy to start thinking of craft beer as “recession-proof.” But is it?

It isn’t too great a leap to wonder whether contracts could prove to be the lifeblood of the next wave of craft growth, or at least play a more significant role going forward.