It’s hard not to notice some echoes of the classic S-shape in the graph of craft beer market share. What would a diffusion model project for the next five to 10 years?

Good times returned to the U.S. beer industry in 2012, and great times continued for the vast majority of Americas 2,347 craft breweries.

In 2011, the headlines were about new local breweries, ongoing growth, and the hundreds of breweries in planning. The sheer number has become a conversation itself.

Almost every regional craft brewery seems to have either undergone a major expansion or has drawn up blueprints for a build-out. Also, 11 more breweries joined the category.

New breweries are popping up nationwide almost every week now. But the real news in this wave of recent growth may actually be that the “old breweries” are getting bigger.

The big brewers in 2011 seem to have woken up and at least have recognized the challenges posed by craft beer, spirits, wine, and non-alcoholic energy drinks.

During the late 1990s, when craft beer growth slowed to single digits, many breweries who branched out into distant territories now find that they overextended themselves.