A Fact-Based Response to an Opinion in the New York Times

I’ll start by saying I want to sit down for a beer with Mark Robichaux.

Robichaux is the former Wall Street Journal reporter who recently published an opinion piece in The New York Times on what’s “killing craft beer.” If you’re anything like me, this article has been swirling in your orbit this week. Maybe your father-in-law sent it to you, too.

If Robichaux and I were to pony up at a neighborhood taproom, the first thing I’d say would be “thank you.” An honest and thoughtful take on shortcomings of craft beer from the perspective of a loyal consumer should always be accepted with open arms. As an industry, we must understand that perception is reality when the perspective comes from the people drinking craft beer.

That said, when perception and reality don’t align, there’s an opportunity for illumination. As someone with the great pleasure of working day-in and day-out in a sea of craft beer data, I would like to take the opportunity to provide context around some of the claims in Robichaux’s piece.

It’s true that the craft beer industry needs to evolve to current conditions, and that has always been the case. The evolution today is well underway. When we dive into the data, we see that many decisions brewers are making are in direct response to consumer and market demands.

Claim #1: The World Doesn’t Need Any More IPAs

IPA is what sells (at least in the off-premise). Per the most recent 3 Tier Beverages/NIQ numbers, the IPA style group (inclusive of IPA, double IPA, hazy IPA, etc.) made up 51.3% of craft dollar sales over the past 52 weeks. The next closest style group in IPA’s rearview was wheat ale at 9.2% of dollar share. Setting aside IPA’s volume dominance for the moment, it’s also one of two style categories taking share from the year prior (up from 49.9%). The only other growth style group in craft is lager, up from 8.1% to 8.4%

As a craft beer consumer who also happens to be a nostalgic romantic, I don’t disagree that it’d be nice at times to see some of the styles that got me hooked on the segment in my 20s. Heck, I gave a Paul Hollywood-style handshake to the only brewer I met pouring a Brown Ale at the Great American Beer Fest last week. But, looking at the numbers, IPAs are what today’s consumers are paying for, and breweries make their money by selling product (less so from fanboy handshakes).

Claim #2: Beer Names Are Getting Outrageous

This is the point where, if Robichaux and I were friends, I would do my best Lebowski and say “You’re not wrong, Walter.” The outlandishness of some beer names is simultaneously true and nearly unavoidable. As anyone who has gone through the exercise of trademarking a beer name knows, there are a whole lot of descriptive names already taken. Per NIQ data, over the past five years, there were an eye-popping 22,094 craft brands sold at the stores that feed that dataset. And, since you can only have one of each beer name (e.g. just one Hazy Little Thing), there are real limitations.

Of course, the alternative would be for every brewery to follow the convention of naming beers purely by style (e.g. Sierra Nevada Pale Ale), but that becomes tough if there’s more than one of the same style per brewery. And in a crowded marketplace, sometimes the eye-catching matters.

Claim #3: Visual Language on Craft Beer Packaging Is Overstimulating

Speaking of catching eyes, I sympathize with Robichaux on the point that his “beer aisle now looks like a vertical Comic Con merch table.” Like any graphic design, the visuals on packaging are vitally important in directing consumers to purchase any product (ask literally every Proctor & Gamble brand on literally every Walmart shelf). In fact, it’s such an important topic, it warranted a seminar at a past Craft Brewers Conference.

Breweries need to be thinking not just about how their labels look on their own in the vacuum of their own glam shots, but also how they show up on a busy shelf. What is going to attract a prospective customer’s eye among the noise? How will they know in a one-second glance what the product is and the value it is going to create for them? Since craft consumers choose what they’re going to buy while they’re at the store 70% of the time (vs. beforehand), being more than a face in the crowd can make all the difference.

Claim #4: Forget 4-Packs

This is an interesting topic that I’m glad Robichaux raised. We know that consumers—and especially younger legal drinking age consumers—are moving toward less frequent alcohol consumption. Even when they are reaching for beverage alcohol, less ethanol per serving is gaining momentum. As such, a 12-ounce beer may just be the right serving size for a day in the park compared to 16 ounces. Where in 2021, 4-packs made up 9.8% of the NIQ volume sold (and 6-packs at 49.2%), by 2024 4-packs were 10.7% of volume and sixers were 43.5%. However slight the 4-pack uptick was over those four years (+0.9pp), most of the 6-pack share was taken by the even more value-focused 12-pack (+2.7pp).

On the other hand, craft beer—like all beverage alcohol—is seeking to capture different occasions. Sometimes those are going to be special occasions where 16 ounces (aka a pint) is going to be just perfect for that romantic or platonic candlelit dinner. Also, a quick Google search offers a retailer called “Amazon” that can get you that 16-ounce coozie shipped overnight.

Claim #5: Craft Breweries Need To Stop Making All 18% Beers

Mark. My friend. This one was just a touch lazy.

Cherry-picking the example of Dogfish Head’s 120-Minute IPA is light years from the norm today (and pretty darn far from the norm ever). I’ll grant you that there’s substantial high(er) alcohol craft volume sold in single packs. In 2024, 52% of singles were 7%+ ABV, compared to 27% of 6-packs. But let’s not throw the baby out with the beer water. In 2024, only 26% of total craft beer volume sold was 7%+ and just a miniscule 0.8% of volume was 10%+.

An Invitation for Another Round

A parting thought in this unsolicited response is to rethink the headline describing the “killing” of craft. In most contexts, an industry experiencing low single-digit volume declines (while reaching a greater number of consumers than ever before) would hardly evoke imagery of death.

While that imagery is provocative, I choose to pursue a perhaps duller reality. It’s no secret that the craft industry is facing market headwinds. In fact, rising input costs and tariffs probably have more potential to “kill” craft breweries than wacky labels do (which, by the way, cost more than they used to). Yet, breweries are adjusting accordingly. A mature industry is not one of explosive growth or precipitous “death,” it’s one where producers make data-driven strategic decisions to find their niche in meeting consumer need.

And still, keep the opinions coming. Ours is an industry of innovators and mad scientists and tinkerers. Open feedback like this helps keep those creative minds adapting to a changing environment and pushing toward the future. All craft fans should feel empowered to provide their perspective to their favorite breweries (even if they aren’t afforded the platform of the Times).