At the Craft Brewers Conference (CBC) this year, there was cautious optimism floating in the ether and flowing from the main stage in Bart Watson’s State of the Industry. After years of doom and gloom (bookended by more doom), something felt different this year and that sentiment was palpable. But, if there were “good vibes,” where did they come from?

As a data-centric, oft-cynical optimist myself, I like the challenge of finding out. How do you quantify something that is as inherently qualitative as “vibes?” How do you take something ethereal and give it structure? How do you solve a problem like Maria?

Let’s get down with our bad selves and give it a shot.

Brewer Sentiment

Much of the discussion of industry positivity started in Philly. While not always a direct proxy for overall sentiment, we ask attendees at the end of the conference how likely they are to attend a future CBC. We can assume that likelihood of future attendance would be connected with current contentment. If that’s the case, CBC attendees left the conference feeling markedly more content than in previous years.

Also notable is that this year, out of several hundred survey responses, there was not a single person indicating that they would “definitely not” attend CBC in the future. If misery loves company, perhaps the lack of negative vibes was as palpable as the good ones.

Of course, sentiment extends beyond the walls of CBC and BrewExpo America. In a world where just 39% of brewers experienced year-over-year production growth (despite significant headwinds) and the craft industry saw 5% volume decline, how could brewers feel good? As has been pointed out elsewhere, production trends may no longer be the only factor in determining what makes a “successful” brewery.

At the same time, it may be worth looking at production another way. In these trying times that we collectively occupy, what would feel like a success on the production side? Let’s say for argument’s sake that it’s not growth but it’s instead maintaining at or above -5% decline. Well, 62% of breweries hit that metric in 2025. If we’re more generous and say at or above -10%, that jumps to 74%.

For the median brewery in the country producing right around 300 BBL annually, a 10% drop would take that figure to 270 BBL annually. In the face of wild economic turbulence, rapidly changing consumer behavior, and more competition than ever, dropping just 30 BBL could be tied to a sentiment of “holy crap, we might just be making it through this.”

The Case of Closing Breweries

If there’s one aspect of the craft industry that gets outsized media airtime, it’s the closing of breweries. Now, the fact is that 481 breweries closed in 2025. That’s significantly more than the 300 that opened in 2025 and each of those 481 hurt acutely for the owners, employees, and community of consumers who loved those spaces and products. It’s an easy story to write that is nearly guaranteed to garner clicks and eyeballs.

But, what if things feel different within the beer industry due to alternative framing? For every five breweries that closed last year, another 92 remained operational cranking out world-class beer, while another three opened their doors for the very first time. Where are those stories? Because those other 95 businesses deserve their tales to be told as well.

And, also, let’s spend a minute discussing the overall number of breweries. In 2025, there were 9,578 production craft breweries operational in the U.S. Admittedly, this is down 2.9% compared to 2024. It is also up 66% from a decade ago in 2016 and up 656% from the number operating in 2006. This translates to orders of magnitude more people who get to work in this great industry as well as staggeringly more access to craft for the American consumer.

Forgive this industry for being proud of how far it has come and having the long view to take short-term dips in stride.

Consumers

Craft beer starts and ends with the people who drink it.

And for the taproom and brewpub models, there’s opportunity right now. Consumers are continuing to spend on-premise (compared to off-premise) by historic margins. While food and beverage store spending has flatlined since the pandemic, consumer spending at food service and drinking places bounced right back out of the COVID valley and has continued climbing.

But what of the realities of a changing consumer-base? Naturally, we all know that young people don’t drink anymore. Just don’t tell young people that.

In the BA’s annual consumer poll, in 2025 there was a full 60% of consumers aged 21-34 who drink craft beer several times a year or more often, only trailing the 35-44 year old cohort (63%). And when looking at those drinking craft beer several times a month or more often, the 21-34 cohort has the highest rate at 45%.

So, they’re already drinking at solid rates and they’re still pretty far from their peak earning potential. Of course, there’s plenty of precedent for consumers drinking less as they age past their 20s and 30s, but Gen Z is the largest generation in history, so capturing a portion of that spending power will be impactful. According to an NIQ report, when Gen Z turns 25, “their mean and median spending per capita in the U.S will outpace prior generations.”

Additionally, 2026 has come with notably fewer extreme views in the public domain about alcohol and public health. It wasn’t too many months ago that a small group of loud voices were getting a lot of airtime demonizing even the moderate consumption of alcohol. Then, in early January of this year, the USDA and HHS released its Dietary Guidelines for Americans which confirmed that moderate alcohol intake is better than excessive consumption. Since that time, the public health conversation has resumed a more measured and science-based tone.

The Vibe Check Reality Check

It may be helpful to note that this post of positivity does not negate the major challenges the industry faces. For those in the room in Philly, you’ll recall that Bart didn’t say the vibes today are quite as high as they were in the gravy days when any homebrewer could hang a shingle on a converted warehouse and find at least moderate success. And as anyone in the industry will tell you, our “vibe benchmark” (an important and assuredly real metric) over the past few years was a “soft comp.”

But dammit! If the industry is feeling itself (even a little bit) for the first time in the 2020s, the BA is here to be cheerleaders with megaphones and enthusiastic hand waving.

Let’s freaking go.